|Titre :||Global alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a modelling study (2019)|
|Auteurs :||J. MANTHEY ; K. D. SHIELD ; M. RYLETT ; O. S. M. HASAN ; C. PROBST ; J. REHM|
|Type de document :||Article : Périodique|
|Dans :||Lancet (The) (Vol.393, n°10190, June 22, 2019)|
|Article en page(s) :||2493-2502|
|Note générale :||Comment: Callinan S., Livingston M. Increases in alcohol consumption in middle-income countries will lead to increased harms. The Lancet, 2019, 393(10190), p. 2471-2472.|
|Discipline :||EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology)|
Thésaurus TOXIBASEALCOOL ; EVOLUTION ; GEOGRAPHIE ; SANTE PUBLIQUE ; CONSOMMATION ; MODELE STATISTIQUE ; PREVALENCE ; SEXE ; REVENU ; ECONOMIE
Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden, and data on alcohol exposure are crucial to evaluate progress in achieving global non-communicable disease goals. We present estimates on the main indicators of alcohol exposure for 189 countries from 1990-2017, with forecasts up to 2030.
Methods: Adult alcohol per-capita consumption (the consumption in L of pure alcohol per adult [>=15 years]) in a given year was based on country-validated data up to 2016. Forecasts up to 2030 were obtained from multivariate log-normal mixture Poisson distribution models. Using survey data from 149 countries, prevalence of lifetime abstinence and current drinking was obtained from Dirichlet regressions. The prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (30-day prevalence of at least one occasion of 60 g of pure alcohol intake among current drinkers) was estimated with fractional response regressions using survey data from 118 countries.
Findings: Between 1990 and 2017, global adult per-capita consumption increased from 5.9 L (95% CI 5.8-6.1) to 6.5 L (6.0-6.9), and is forecasted to reach 7.6 L (6.5-10.2) by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of lifetime abstinence decreased from 46% (42-49) in 1990 to 43% (40-46) in 2017, albeit this was not a significant reduction, while the prevalence of current drinking increased from 45% (41-48) in 1990 to 47% (44-50) in 2017. We forecast both trends to continue, with abstinence decreasing to 40% (37-44) by 2030 (annualised 0.2% decrease) and the proportion of current drinkers increasing to 50% (46-53) by 2030 (annualised 0.2% increase). In 2017, 20% (17-24) of adults were heavy episodic drinkers (compared with 1990 when it was estimated at 18.5% [15.3-21.6%], and this prevalence is expected to increase to 23% (19-27) in 2030.
Interpretation: Based on these data, global goals for reducing the harmful use of alcohol are unlikely to be achieved, and known effective and cost-effective policy measures should be implemented to reduce alcohol exposure.
Funding: Centre for Addiction and Mental Health and the WHO Collaborating Center for Addiction and Mental Health at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health.
|Domaine :||Alcool / Alcohol|
|Refs biblio. :||36|
|Affiliation :||Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany|
|URL :||Franceinfo 08/05/2019|