Titre : | What is the prevalence of drug use in the general population? Simulating underreported and unknown use for more accurate national estimates (2022) |
Auteurs : | N. S. LEVY ; J. J. PALAMAR ; S. J. MOONEY ; C. M. CLELAND ; K. M. KEYES |
Type de document : | Article : Périodique |
Dans : | Annals of Epidemiology (Vol.68, April 2022) |
Article en page(s) : | 45-53 |
Langues: | Anglais |
Discipline : | EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology) |
Mots-clés : |
Thésaurus géographique ETATS-UNISThésaurus mots-clés PRODUIT ILLICITE ; PREVALENCE ; BIAIS ; METHODE ; EPIDEMIOLOGIE ; CANNABIS ; COCAINE ; POPULATION GENERALE ; AUTOEVALUATION ; MODELE STATISTIQUE |
Mots-clés: | NSDUH |
Résumé : |
PURPOSE: To outline a method for obtaining more accurate estimates of drug use in the United States (US) general population by correcting survey data for underreported and unknown drug use.
METHODS: We simulated a population (n = 100,000) reflecting the demographics of the US adult population per the 2018 American Community Survey. Within this population, we simulated the "true" and self-reported prevalence of past-month cannabis and cocaine use by using available estimates of underreporting. We applied our algorithm to samples of the simulated population to correct self-reported estimates and recover the "true" population prevalence, validating our approach. We applied this same method to 2018 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data to produce a range of underreporting-corrected estimates. RESULTS: Simulated self-report sensitivities varied by drug and sampling method (cannabis: 77.6%-78.5%, cocaine: 14.3%-22.1%). Across repeated samples, mean corrected prevalences (calculated by dividing self-reported prevalence by estimated sensitivity) closely approximated simulated "true" prevalences. Applying our algorithm substantially increased 2018 NSDUH estimates (self-report: cannabis = 10.5%, cocaine = 0.8%; corrected: cannabis = 15.6%-16.6%, cocaine = 2.7%-5.5%). CONCLUSIONS: National drug use prevalence estimates can be corrected for underreporting using a simple method. However, valid application of this method requires accurate data on the extent and correlates of misclassification in the general US population. |
Domaine : | Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs |
Refs biblio. : | 82 |
Affiliation : | Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York City, NY, USA |
Lien : | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2021.12.013 |
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