|Titre :||Evolution of estimated coca cultivation and cocaine production in South America (Bolivia, Colombia and Peru) and of the actors, modalities and routes of cocaine trafficking to Europe. Background paper commissioned by the EMCDDA for the 2016 EU Drug Markets Report|
|Auteurs :||M. SCHULTZE-KRAFT|
|Type de document :||Rapport|
|Editeur :||Lisbon : OEDT / EMCDDA, 2016|
|Format :||16 p. / graph.|
|Discipline :||MAR (Marché de la drogue / Drug market)|
Thésaurus TOXIBASECOCA ; PRODUCTION ; AGRICULTURE ; COCAINE ; TRAFIC INTERNATIONAL ; EVOLUTION ; ORGANISATION CRIMINELLE
Thésaurus GéographiqueAMERIQUE DU SUD ; PEROU ; BOLIVIE ; COLOMBIE ; EUROPE
In the period 2010-2014, the South American cocaine markets have witnessed some change in comparison to previous years, particularly with respect to (a) the estimated areas under coca bush cultivation and the potential volume of cocaine hydrochloride production; and (b) the organization and governance of the illegal business and the constellation and type of the actors involved in transnational cocaine trafficking. […]
With respect to the actors involved in cocaine trafficking from South America to Europe, there appears to be a trend toward the further fragmentation, horizontalization and expansion of the cocaine production and trafficking networks; some of the larger Colombian and Mexican trafficking outfits are employing a 'franchise model' where they are selling their 'brand names' and 'operating licenses' to smaller criminal groups and even individuals that are not part of their organizations. Mexican traffickers seem to have made inroads into the shrinking Andean cocaine supply markets, expanding their local networks with the aim of cutting out intermediaries. While they are also striving to expand their activities in Europe, particularly in Spain, some European criminal groups appear to be building a more permanent presence in South America, possibly aiming to enhance their strategic position in what is an ever more crowded and competitive illegal market.
Despite these developments there is no evidence that would point to any significant changes in the trafficking modalities and routes to Europe. The bulk of cocaine hydrochloride continues to be hidden inside containers and shipped to European entry ports via the northern transatlantic route.
It is furthermore unlikely that a successful conclusion of the peace talks between the government of President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC would have a larger and lasting impact on the Andean and South American cocaine markets. Other criminal groups, including renegade FARC units, Colombia's 'emerging criminal gangs' (BACRIM) and Mexican trafficking outfits would seek to fill - probably with some difficulties - any voids left by the insurgent's (partial) exit from the illegal business.
Overall the outlook for Europe is therefore not rosy. The mentioned developments stand to add another layer of complexity to European counter-drug efforts. The significant drop in the overall volume of potential Andean cocaine hydrochloride production in the past five years does not necessarily indicate that there will be an equally significant reduction in the availability of cocaine in the European Union. In effect, the gains on the production end could be offset by the adaptations and changes that are occurring with respect to the organization and governance of the transatlantic cocaine trade and the multiplication of the involved criminal actors. [Extracts]
|Domaine :||Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs|
|Affiliation :||Department of Political Studies, ICESI University, Cali, Colombia|
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