Historique
Article de Périodique
Do drug seizures predict drug-related emergency department presentations or arrests for drug use and possession? (2016)
Auteur(s) :
W. Y. WAN ;
D. WEATHERBURN ;
G. WARDLAW ;
V. SARAFIDIS ;
G. SARA
Article en page(s) :
74-81
Domaine :
Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Discipline :
EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology)
Thésaurus géographique
AUSTRALIE
Thésaurus mots-clés
SAISIE
;
URGENCE
;
FACTEUR PREDICTIF
;
POSSESSION DE DROGUE
;
SURDOSE
;
HEROINE
;
COCAINE
;
AMPHETAMINE
;
ARRESTATION
;
MODELE STATISTIQUE
Note générale :
ATS = Amphetamine-type substances
Résumé :
Background: Direct evidence of the effect of drug seizures on drug use and drug-related harm is fairly sparse. The aim of this study was to see whether seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS predict the number of people arrested for use and possession of these drugs and the number overdosing on them.
Method: We examined the effect of seizure frequency and seizure weight on arrests for drug use and possession and on the frequency of drug overdose with autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. Granger causality tests were used to test for simultaneity.
Results: Over the short term (i.e. up to 4 months), increases in the intensity of high-level drug law enforcement (as measured by seizure weight and frequency) directed at ATS, cocaine and heroin did not appear to have any suppression effect on emergency department (ED) presentations relating to ATS, cocaine and heroin, or on arrests for use and/or possession of these drugs. A significant negative contemporaneous relationship was found between the heroin seizure weight and arrests for use and/or possession of heroin. However no evidence emerged of a contemporaneous or lagged relationship between heroin seizures and heroin ED presentations.
Conclusion: The balance of evidence suggests that, in the Australian context, increases in the monthly seizure frequency and quantity of ATS, cocaine and heroin are signals of increased rather than reduced supply.
Highlights:
Large-scale seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS exert no effect on drug overdose frequency.
Large-scale seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS exert no effect on use/possession arrests.
Increases in seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS presage increases in arrests for use of these drugs.
Method: We examined the effect of seizure frequency and seizure weight on arrests for drug use and possession and on the frequency of drug overdose with autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. Granger causality tests were used to test for simultaneity.
Results: Over the short term (i.e. up to 4 months), increases in the intensity of high-level drug law enforcement (as measured by seizure weight and frequency) directed at ATS, cocaine and heroin did not appear to have any suppression effect on emergency department (ED) presentations relating to ATS, cocaine and heroin, or on arrests for use and/or possession of these drugs. A significant negative contemporaneous relationship was found between the heroin seizure weight and arrests for use and/or possession of heroin. However no evidence emerged of a contemporaneous or lagged relationship between heroin seizures and heroin ED presentations.
Conclusion: The balance of evidence suggests that, in the Australian context, increases in the monthly seizure frequency and quantity of ATS, cocaine and heroin are signals of increased rather than reduced supply.
Highlights:
Large-scale seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS exert no effect on drug overdose frequency.
Large-scale seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS exert no effect on use/possession arrests.
Increases in seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS presage increases in arrests for use of these drugs.
Affiliation :
NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, Sydney, Australia