|Titre :||Cocaine's fall and marijuana's rise: questions and insights based on new estimates of consumption and expenditures in US drug markets [For debate] (2015)|
|Auteurs :||J. P. CAULKINS ; B. KILMER ; P. H. REUTER ; G. MIDGETTE|
|Type de document :||Article : Périodique|
|Dans :||Addiction (Vol.110, n°5, May 2015)|
|Article en page(s) :||728-736|
|Note générale :||
- The rise of marijuana and the fall of cocaine in the United States: for better, for worse? Nosyk B., Wood E., Kerr T., p. 737-738.
- We know too little about demand: comments on 'cocaine's fall'. Weatherburn D., p. 738-739.
- Drug use data, drug use theories and drug use policies in the United States: a combinatorial lack of connections. Des Jarlais D., p. 739-740.
- A socio-cultural view of trends in drug use indicators. Golub A., Elliott L., Bennett A.S., p. 740-741.
- On a search for useful indicators… or not? Zabransky T., p. 741-743.
- Beyond prevalence: importance of estimating drug consumption and expenditures. Caulkins J.P., Kilmer B., Reuter P.H., Midgette G., p. 743-745.
|Discipline :||EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology)|
Thésaurus TOXIBASEMARCHE DE LA DROGUE ; COCAINE ; CANNABIS ; ECONOMIE ; CONSOMMATION ; DEPENSE ; POPULATION GENERALE ; ENQUETE ; TYPE D'USAGE
Aims: Drug policy strategies and discussions often use prevalence of drug use as a primary performance indicator. However, three other indicators are at least as relevant: the number of heavy users, total expenditures and total amount consumed. This paper stems from our efforts to develop annual estimates of these three measures for cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana and methamphetamine in the United States.
Methods: The estimates exploit complementary strengths of a general population survey (National Survey on Drug Use and Health) and both survey and urinalysis test result data for arrestees (Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring Program), supplemented by many other data sources.
Results: Throughout the 2000s US drug users spent in the order of $100 billion annually on these drugs, although the spending distribution and use patterns changed dramatically. From 2006 to 2010, the amount of marijuana consumed in the United States probably increased by more than 30%, while the amount of cocaine consumed in the United States fell by approximately 50%. These figures are consistent with supply-side indicators, such as seizures and production estimates. For all the drugs, total consumption and expenditures are driven by the minority of users who consume on 21 or more days each month.
Conclusions: Even for established drugs, consumption can change rapidly. The halving of the cocaine market in five years and the parallel (but independent) large rise in daily/near-daily marijuana use are major events that were not anticipated by the expert community and raise important theoretical, research, and policy issues.
|Domaine :||Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs|
|Refs biblio. :||44|
|Affiliation :||RAND Drug Policy Research Center, RAND, Santa Monica, CA, USA|