Titre : | The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands (2015) |
Auteurs : | L. STOELDRAIJER ; L. BONNEUX ; C. VAN DUIN ; L. VAN WISSEN ; F. JANSSEN |
Type de document : | Article : Périodique |
Dans : | Addiction (Vol.110, n°2, February 2015) |
Article en page(s) : | 336-345 |
Langues: | Anglais |
Discipline : | EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology) |
Mots-clés : |
Thésaurus géographique ROYAUME-UNI ; ANGLETERRE ; PAYS DE GALLES ; DANEMARK ; PAYS-BASThésaurus mots-clés TABAC ; MORTALITE ; COHORTE ; POUMON ; CANCER ; MODELE STATISTIQUE ; PREVALENCE ; SEXE ; EVOLUTION |
Résumé : |
Aims: We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model.
Methods: We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. Findings: The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44?872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16?385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38?883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women. Conclusions: From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes. |
Domaine : | Tabac / Tobacco / e-cigarette |
Refs biblio. : | 32 |
Affiliation : | Department of Demography, Statistics Netherlands, The Hague, the Netherlands |
Cote : | Abonnement |
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