|Titre :||Further insights into aspects of the EU illicit drugs market|
|Auteurs :||F. TRAUTMANN ; B. KILMER ; P. TURNBULL|
|Type de document :||Rapport|
|Editeur :||Bruxelles : Commission européenne, Direction générale justice et affaires intérieures, Coordination de la lutte anti-drogue, 2013|
|Autre Editeur :||Luxembourg : Publications Office of the European Union|
|Format :||503 p. / ann., tabl., graph.|
|Discipline :||MAR (Marché de la drogue / Drug market)|
Thésaurus TOXIBASEMARCHE DE LA DROGUE ; PRODUIT ILLICITE ; CANNABIS ; PRODUCTION ; COUT ; COFFEE SHOP ; CONSOMMATION ; HEROINE ; DIFFUSION DES PRODUITS ; TRAITEMENT DE MAINTENANCE ; COCAINE ; CONTREBANDE
Thésaurus GéographiqueUNION EUROPEENNE ; EUROPE ; PAYS-BAS ; BULGARIE ; REPUBLIQUE TCHEQUE ; ITALIE ; SUEDE ; PORTUGAL ; ROYAUME-UNI
* Our estimates for the EU cannabis market suggest a range of approximately €7 billion to €10 billion for 2010. These estimates are likely low as they do not account for the "consumption gap" that is created when data from general population surveys are used to measure substance use. Prior estimates of the EU cannabis market ranged from €15-35 billion.
* This difference arises from two key findings of this study:
- Cannabis users who use more frequently also smoke more each time they use. This is true across the seven countries studied.
- Occasional users are more likely to share than are frequent users; that still further reduces the amount they consume at each session.
- This picture also seems to apply to amphetamine, ecstasy and cocaine use.
* Our study also shows that intensive users are a small to modest fraction of cannabis users (between 5% and 25%), but are responsible for the bulk (between 55% and 77%) of the total amount of cannabis annually consumed in all countries. Infrequent users of cannabis, using less than once per month, form the largest group of past year cannabis users but account for 2 percent or less of the quantity consumed.
* Another important finding is that users stating that they used in the past month and specifying the quantity used in the past month do not consume (the same amounts) each month. Multiplying their consumption by twelve to obtain an annual estimate may result in an overestimation. There are also other factors which might have led to earlier overestimations of cannabis consumption. One might be overstating the share of 'high consumption users' among past year. Finally, earlier studies have used higher estimates of amounts of cannabis used per unit compared to those we found in our study.
* Enforcing laws against the production and distribution of cannabis dramatically inflate their costs. The increase is largely driven by producers and traffickers requiring compensation for their risk of arrest, incarceration, seizure, and violent injury as well as by the inefficiencies associated with having to operate covertly.
* Drug markets to some extent follow the same laws of economics of licit markets, as attested by our Delphi survey of European drug experts about key trends of the illicit drugs market and policy responses in the EU. The majority of experts stress the analogy of the illicit drugs market with other (licit) markets. For example, it is important to maintain working relations with suppliers and employees. A study of 33 failed transactions in the Dutch cocaine smuggling trade found that the smuggler mostly tried to understand what went wrong and work out a reasonable way of arranging compensation. However about 40% did involve either violence or its threat; how that affects behaviour within the market remains to be worked out.
|Note de contenu :||
Key findings and summaries
* Part I - Drugs market: an assessment from the demand side:
Report 1 - Cannabis market: user types, availability and consumption estimates
Report 2 - Amphetamine, ecstasy and cocaine: typology of users, availability and consumption estimates
Report 3 - Heroin market: use characteristics, size of the market and impact of OST on the heroin market
Report 4 - Estimating the size of the EU cannabis market
* Part II - Drugs market: selected features:
Report 1 - Opioid consumption and substitution treatment in Finland and Sweden: a similar path with different outcomes?
Report 2 - Managing potential conflict in illegal markets: an exploratory study of cocaine smuggling in the Netherlands
Report 3 - 'Polymorphous criminal networks': considering criminal groups' engagement across markets
Report 4 - Insights about cannabis production and distribution costs in the EU
* Part III - Drug policy issues:
Report 1 - Impact of decriminalisation of personal possession offences in Portugal
Report 2 - Impact of changes in the Netherlands coffee shop policies on local markets: politics, policies, confusion and chaos: the problems associated with implementing the Dutch weed pass
Report 3 - Exploring trends in the illicit drugs market and drug policy responses in the EU
|Domaine :||Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs|
|Affiliation :||Trimbos Institute ; RAND ; ICPR|
|URL :||Summary: http://ec.europa.eu/justice/anti-drugs/files/eu_market_summary_en.pdf|