Titre : | Drug user dynamics: A compartmental model of drug users for scenario analyses (2013) |
Auteurs : | M. SANTORO ; L. TRIOLO ; C. ROSSI |
Type de document : | Article : Périodique |
Dans : | Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy (Vol.20, n°3, June 2013) |
Article en page(s) : | 184-194 |
Langues: | Anglais |
Discipline : | SAN (Santé publique / Public health) |
Mots-clés : |
Thésaurus géographique ITALIEThésaurus mots-clés EVALUATION ; POLITIQUE ; MODELE ; CANNABIS ; POLYCONSOMMATION ; TYPE D'USAGE ; MODELE STATISTIQUE ; USAGER |
Résumé : | A six-typology compartment model of trends in the use of illicit drugs in Italy is developed to evaluate policies and interventions through scenario analyses. Inside the big compartments of just-cannabis users and multiple drug users, three subpopulations are taken into account: the occasional, regular and intensive user. Moreover, compartments for health care, assisted persons together with a constant source (susceptible) are added; removed people (i.e. those who leave drugs for any reason) are put in a compartment which does not participate in the dynamics. Flows from the susceptible reservoir among the drug-user compartments and to the removed or the health care compartments are studied in a deterministic linear ODE framework, where parameters are estimated using Italian data. This system shows an evolution towards a steady state, the speed of convergence being dependent on parameters in a fairly visible way. This model represents a theoretical development in drug policy analysis, as it shows the relevance of flux parameters, which are in principle subject to modifications due to institutional efforts, together with a quantitative evaluation of their role in the evolution of the whole system. |
Domaine : | Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs |
Affiliation : | Mathematics Department, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy |
Cote : | Abonnement |
Lien : | http://dx.doi.org/10.3109/09687637.2012.750274 |
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