Titre : | Pilot project to estimate time trends and incidence of problem drug use in the European Union. Final report. CT.98.EP.07 |
Titre traduit : | (Etude de faisabilité pour l'estimation de l'incidence et l'évolution dans le temps des problèmes de drogues dans l'union européenne. CT.98.EP.07.) |
Auteurs : | OEDT = EMCDDA |
Type de document : | Rapport |
Editeur : | Lisbon : OEDT / EMCDDA, 1999 |
Format : | 162 p. / graph. |
Note générale : | Lisbonne, EMCDDA, 1999, 162 p. |
Langues: | Anglais |
Discipline : | EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology) |
Mots-clés : |
Thésaurus mots-clés EPIDEMIOLOGIE ; MODELE STATISTIQUE ; EVOLUTION ; PREMIER USAGE ; DEMANDE ; TRAITEMENTThésaurus géographique PAYS-BAS ; ITALIE ; PORTUGAL ; ROYAUME-UNI ; UNION EUROPEENNEOrganismes OEDT |
Résumé : |
ENGLISH :
How problem drug use develops over time in Europe is only known through indirect indicators - such as treatment presentations, drug seizures or drug related deaths - and from a limited number of cities. Estimates of the incidence of drug use at country or city level are generally not available. An EMCDDA pilot project has estimated time trends and the incidence of the spread of problem drug use in cities in Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The study focused on two main objectives: to investigate the latency period (time from first drug use to first treatment demand) distribution, which is analogous to a disease incubation period, using data from the pilot sites by means of models and methods used in survival analysis; and to try to apply back-calculation (BC) methods for estimating the incidence of problem drug use from treatment data (incidence of new cases in treatment). BC methods have successfully been used to estimate incidence of HIV from reported HIV cases, using the estimated incubation time from HIV to AIDS. The project demonstrated that the latency period from first drug use to first treatment demand was remarkably similar across the participating sites, with an average of 6 to 8 years. However, age at first use was a strong determinant of this period, young heroin drug users taking much longer to present for treatment. This has important consequences for treatment centres, which might not be providing sufficiently adequate services to young problem drug users. Based on the estimated latency time, the incidence curves in the sites showed very different development over the years. In Amsterdam a strong peak in the early 1980s was followed by a long period of low incidence, while in Rome the incidence of problem drug use was relatively high over the years, with some fluctuations. (Author' s abstract) |
Domaine : | Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs |
Refs biblio. : | 16 |
Affiliation : | Portugal |
Numéro Toxibase : | 1300625 |
Centre Emetteur : | 13 OFDT |
Cote : | OEDT-1.10 |
Exemplaires
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Documents numériques (3)
EMCDDA_CT98EP07-1.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF |
EMCDDA_CT98EP07-2.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF |
EMCDDA_CT98EP07-3.pdf Adobe Acrobat PDF |
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