Titre : | A capture-recapture model to estimate the size of criminal populations and the risks of detection in a marijuana cultivation industry (2007) |
Titre traduit : | (Un modèle de capture-recapture pour estimer la taille de populations criminelles et les risques de repérage dans une industrie de culture de cannabis.) |
Auteurs : | M. BOUCHARD |
Type de document : | Article : Périodique |
Dans : | Journal of Quantitative Criminology (Vol.23, n°3, September 2007) |
Article en page(s) : | 221-241 |
Langues: | Anglais |
Discipline : | MAR (Marchés / Markets) |
Mots-clés : |
Thésaurus mots-clés CAPTURE-RECAPTURE ; CANNABIS ; FACTEUR DE RISQUE ; PRODUCTION ; MODELE ; CRIMINALITE ; COHORTE ; CULTURE PRIVEE ; ARRESTATION ; PREVALENCEThésaurus géographique CANADA ; QUEBEC |
Résumé : | Originally developed in biology, capture-recapture methodologies have increasingly been integrated into the study of human populations to provide estimates of the size of hidden populations. This paper explores the validity of one capture-recapture model - Zeltermans (1988) truncated Poisson estimator - used to estimate the size of the marijuana cultivation industry in Quebec, Canada. The capture-recapture analysis draws on arrest data to estimate the number of marijuana growers at risk of being arrested for a period of five years (1998-2002). Estimates are provided for growers involved in two different techniques: (1) soil-based growing, and (2) hydroponics. In addition, the study develops an original method to estimate the prevalence of cultivation sites at risk of detection. A first set of findings shows that the cultivation industry is substantial; the estimated prevalence of growers compares to estimates of marijuana dealers in the province. Capture-recapture estimates are also used to compare the risks of being arrested for different types of offenders. Results indicate that hydroponic growers - those involved in large scale and sophisticated sites - face lower enforcement-related risks than growers involved in smaller enterprises. The significance of these findings is discussed in the context of the widespread development, both in Europe and in North America, of a successful domestic production-driven, rather than importation-driven, marijuana trade. (Author' s abstract) |
Domaine : | Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs |
Affiliation : | Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, 2220 LeFrak Hall, College Park, MD, USA |
Numéro Toxibase : | 1302305 |
Centre Emetteur : | 13 OFDT |
Cote : | A03436 |
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