|Titre :||Report of the seminar Drug use research, policy and dynamic modelling, EMCDDA, Lisbon, 7-9 may 1998 (Follow-up to the review on dynamic models). CT.97.EP.10|
|Auteurs :||C. GODFREY ; V. WABY ; L. WIESSING ; R. HARTNOLL|
|Type de document :||Rapport|
|Editeur :||Lisbon : OEDT / EMCDDA, 1998|
|Format :||78 p.|
|Note générale :||Lisbon, EMCDDA, 1998, 78 p.|
|Discipline :||EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology)|
Thésaurus TOXIBASEMODELE ; RECHERCHE ; POLITIQUE ; ECONOMIE ; GEOGRAPHIE ; EPIDEMIOLOGIE
This report contains the proceedings of a seminar co-organised by EMCDDA and the University of York to consider how modelling techniques could be used to address policy questions and how the results of such modelling could be disseminated to different policy makers across Europe. The invited seminar included drug researchers, other drug specialists and a group of modelling experts who had been drawn together in 1997 to consider the feasibility of developing dynamic models of drug use and related problems. The seminar was divided into four major sessions: - the priority questions in drug use and policy; - a series of case studies which illustrate the potential for modelling to inform policy making; - parallel thematic workshops to consider the options in the six areas identified by the expert group; - discussion of the priority areas for future research.
As a result of the seminar some 13 different priority projects across the 6 thematic areas were identified.
1. Modelling interventions. 2. Dynamics of spread.
Geographical Information Systems:
3. Simple mapping using existing software. 4. Developing the analytic approach.
Economic Market Models:
5. Typology of actors in the market. 6. Review of applied micro economic studies. 7. Modelling using macro data such as prices.
Time trends and incidence:
8. Models of the time lag between onset and treatment for opiate users. 9. The potential to use back calculations and other methods with other drugs.
Costs and cost benefit:
10. Developing the guidelines for estimating social costs for Europe and undertaking a number of applications. 11. Developing a framework for the cost benefit analysis of drug interventions.
Social processes and initiation of drug use:
12. Identify and model risk factors for initiation of drug use across countries using survey data. 13. Measure risk behaviours and develop methods to analyse these data.
Finally, the overall conclusion from the seminar was the need to synthesise and aggregate the increasing amount of data that is being collected. This process required models that were developed bringing together a number of different perspectives and disciplines. EMCDDA had a clear role in facilitating the networks which could take forward the required research.
|Domaine :||Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs|
|Affiliation :||Centre for Health Economics, Univ. of York ; EMCDDA Royaume-Uni. United Kingdom.|
|Centre Emetteur :||13 OFDT|
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