Estimating the prevalence of problem drug use from drug-related mortality data

H. E. JONES ; R. J. HARRIS ; B. C. DOWNING ; M. PIERCE ; T. MILLAR ; A. E. ADES ; N. J. WELTON ; A. M. PRESANIS ; D. DE ANGELIS ; M. HICKMAN | 2020
Dans Addiction (Vol.115, n°12, December 2020) Article : Périodique

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Indirect estimation methods are required for estimating the size of populations where only a proportion of individuals are observed directly, such as problem drug users (PDUs). Capture-recapture and multiplier methods are wi[...]

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Illicit and pharmaceutical drug consumption estimated via wastewater analysis. Part B: Placing back-calculations in a formal statistical framework

H. E. JONES ; M. HICKMAN ; B. KASPRZYK-HORDERN ; N. J. WELTON ; D. R. BAKER ; A. E. ADES | 2014
Dans Science of the Total Environment (Vol.487, 15 July 2014) Article : Périodique

Concentrations of metabolites of illicit drugs in sewage water can be measured with great accuracy and precision, thanks to the development of sensitive and robust analytical methods. Based on assumptions about factors including the excretion pr[...]

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Nouveauté

Prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland 2015-2020: A multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) study

A. MARKOULIDAKIS ; M. HICKMAN ; A. McAULEY ; L. R. BARNSDALE ; N. J. WELTON ; M. GLANCY ; T. SHIVAJI ; C. COLLINS ; J. LANG ; F. DE WIT ; G. HUNT ; L. WILKINSON ; R. FRASER ; A. YEUNG ; K. HORSBURGH ; S. PRIYADARSHI ; S. J. HUTCHINSON ; H. E. JONES | 2024
Dans Addiction (Vol.119, n°8, August 2024) Article : Périodique

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Drug-related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15-64 from 2014/15 to 201[...]

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Problem drug use prevalence estimation revisited: heterogeneity in capture-recapture and the role of external evidence

H. E. JONES ; N. J. WELTON ; A. E. ADES ; M. PIERCE ; W. DAVIES ; B. COLEMAN ; T. MILLAR ; M. HICKMAN | 2016
Dans Addiction (Vol.111, n°3, March 2016) Article : Périodique

Background and Aims: Capture-recapture (CRC) analysis is recommended for estimating the prevalence of problem drug use or people who inject drugs (PWID). We aim to demonstrate how naive application of CRC can lead to highly misleading results, a[...]

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