Historique
Article de Périodique
Seizure-to-market ratios and the resilience of the drug markets in France (2010-2023) (2026)
Auteur(s) :
BEN LAKHDAR, C. ;
MASSIN, S.
Année
2026
Page(s) :
art. 105289
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Domaine :
Drogues illicites
Discipline :
MAR (Marchés / Markets)
Thésaurus géographique
FRANCE
Thésaurus mots-clés
PRODUIT ILLICITE
;
MARCHE DE LA DROGUE
;
SAISIE
;
EVOLUTION
;
PRIX
;
PURETE
;
EVALUATION
;
CANNABIS
;
COCAINE
;
HEROINE
;
MDMA-ECSTASY
;
AMPHETAMINE
;
MODELE STATISTIQUE
Résumé :
BACKGROUND: Drug seizures are widely used as indicators of law enforcement performance, yet their ability to disrupt drug markets remains unclear. Recent evidence highlights the lack of rigorous empirical research assessing whether seizures reduce drug availability, crime, or harms. This study compares estimated quantities consumed in France with official seizure volumes to evaluate the relative scale and policy relevance of drug seizures.
METHODS: We used a demand-side, bottom-up approach to estimate consumption volumes for cannabis, cocaine, heroin, MDMA/ecstasy, and amphetamines for 2010, 2017, and 2023. These estimates were derived from representative population surveys and consumption indicators. Seizure volumes were drawn from national statistics. Seizure-to-market ratios were computed for each substance and year.
RESULTS: In 2023, estimated consumption reached approximately 400 tonnes of cannabis, 47 tonnes of cocaine, 8 tonnes of heroin, 65 million MDMA/ecstasy tablets, and 5.6 tonnes of amphetamines. Seizure-to-market ratios show stable proportions for cannabis (20-30%) and heroin (13-16%), low ratios for MDMA/ecstasy (3-20%), and unusually high ratios for cocaine in 2017 (46-122%), reflecting France's role as an interception point for Europe-bound trafficking. Despite these seizure volumes, retail prices remained stable or declined, while purity and inflation were rising over the same period.
CONCLUSION: The convergence of our estimated seizure ratios with contextual market indicators (stable or falling prices, increasing purity, and inflation) suggests that drug markets remained resilient and that seizures had limited impact on availability. These findings underscore the need for more comprehensive indicators to evaluate supply-side drug policies. [Author's abstract]
Highlights:
Demand-side data show sustained growth in France’s illicit drug markets since 2010.
Seizure-to-market ratios exceed initial assumptions and vary widely for cocaine.
Prices stayed stable or fell as purity rose, even during high inflation.
Indicators suggest limited supply disruption despite large seizure volumes.
Results call for more robust, multidimensional evaluation of supply-side policies.
METHODS: We used a demand-side, bottom-up approach to estimate consumption volumes for cannabis, cocaine, heroin, MDMA/ecstasy, and amphetamines for 2010, 2017, and 2023. These estimates were derived from representative population surveys and consumption indicators. Seizure volumes were drawn from national statistics. Seizure-to-market ratios were computed for each substance and year.
RESULTS: In 2023, estimated consumption reached approximately 400 tonnes of cannabis, 47 tonnes of cocaine, 8 tonnes of heroin, 65 million MDMA/ecstasy tablets, and 5.6 tonnes of amphetamines. Seizure-to-market ratios show stable proportions for cannabis (20-30%) and heroin (13-16%), low ratios for MDMA/ecstasy (3-20%), and unusually high ratios for cocaine in 2017 (46-122%), reflecting France's role as an interception point for Europe-bound trafficking. Despite these seizure volumes, retail prices remained stable or declined, while purity and inflation were rising over the same period.
CONCLUSION: The convergence of our estimated seizure ratios with contextual market indicators (stable or falling prices, increasing purity, and inflation) suggests that drug markets remained resilient and that seizures had limited impact on availability. These findings underscore the need for more comprehensive indicators to evaluate supply-side drug policies. [Author's abstract]
Highlights:
Demand-side data show sustained growth in France’s illicit drug markets since 2010.
Seizure-to-market ratios exceed initial assumptions and vary widely for cocaine.
Prices stayed stable or fell as purity rose, even during high inflation.
Indicators suggest limited supply disruption despite large seizure volumes.
Results call for more robust, multidimensional evaluation of supply-side policies.
Affiliation :
Université de Lille, LEM UMR 9221 CNRS, FSJPS, Lille, France