Historique
Article de Périodique
Modelling the amount of inputs needed for methamphetamine manufacture in Afghanistan (2024)
Auteur(s) :
PARDO, B. ;
NOBAJAS GANAU, A. ;
ZEILER, I.
Année
2024
Page(s) :
1013-1020
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Refs biblio. :
40
Domaine :
Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs
Discipline :
MAR (Marchés / Markets)
Thésaurus géographique
AFGHANISTAN
Thésaurus mots-clés
MARCHE DE LA DROGUE
;
METHAMPHETAMINE
;
PLANTES
;
PRECURSEURS
;
MODELE
;
DROGUES DE SYNTHESE
;
PRODUCTION
;
PRODUIT ILLICITE
;
FABRICATION
;
SAISIE
Note générale :
Soderholm A., Mansfield D., Groshkova T., Sedefov R., Griffiths P. Commentary on Pardo et al.: Whatever the past situation, drug precursor chemicals may in future represent an important source for synthetic drug production in Afghanistan and surrounding countries. Addiction, 2024, Vol. 119, n° 6, p. 1021-1023. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.16496
Résumé :
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The use and manufacture of methamphetamine has increased in Afghanistan in recent years. Recent research and reports have pointed to the ephedra plant, which grows wildly, as a key source of ephedrine used in the manufacture of methamphetamine. This paper aimed to estimate the relative efficiencies and scale of inputs required to manufacture methamphetamine in Afghanistan.
METHODS: Monte Carlo simulations model of the amount of ephedra or cold medications needed to render a pure kilogram of methamphetamine in Afghanistan, accounting for uncertainty in ranges of key parameters informed from the literature and elsewhere. Final estimates were extrapolated to recent seizure totals.
RESULTS: For dried ephedra, the median estimate is 196.8 kg (25th-75th percentiles 119.3-346.6 kg) needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine compared with 27.9 kg (25th-75th percentiles 21.9-36.8 kg) for cold medications. Nearly 2.7 t of methamphetamine were seized in Afghanistan in 2021. Assuming a purity range of 50%-90%, some 266-478 t of dried ephedra or 38-68 t of cold medication would need to have been processed.
CONCLUSION: Simulated estimates show that considerable amounts of either ephedra or cold medication are needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine in Afghanistan. This raises questions about the plausibility of ephedra as the dominant source of Afghanistan's methamphetamine. [Author's abstract]
METHODS: Monte Carlo simulations model of the amount of ephedra or cold medications needed to render a pure kilogram of methamphetamine in Afghanistan, accounting for uncertainty in ranges of key parameters informed from the literature and elsewhere. Final estimates were extrapolated to recent seizure totals.
RESULTS: For dried ephedra, the median estimate is 196.8 kg (25th-75th percentiles 119.3-346.6 kg) needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine compared with 27.9 kg (25th-75th percentiles 21.9-36.8 kg) for cold medications. Nearly 2.7 t of methamphetamine were seized in Afghanistan in 2021. Assuming a purity range of 50%-90%, some 266-478 t of dried ephedra or 38-68 t of cold medication would need to have been processed.
CONCLUSION: Simulated estimates show that considerable amounts of either ephedra or cold medication are needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine in Afghanistan. This raises questions about the plausibility of ephedra as the dominant source of Afghanistan's methamphetamine. [Author's abstract]
Affiliation :
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Research and Trends Analysis Branch, Vienna, Austria
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Information Centre, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Information Centre, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Cote :
Abonnement