Historique
Article de Périodique
Development and validation of a simple risk calculator for alcohol-related adverse outcomes: Results from a composite scale approach in a nationally representative sample (2025)
Auteur(s) :
HOERTEL, N. ;
DOSQUET, M. ;
SANCHEZ-RICO, M. ;
GODINO-CRUZ, J. ;
BLANCO, C. ;
AUBIN, H. J. ;
DUCOUTUMANY, G. ;
GORWOOD, P. ;
LELEU, H. ;
AIRAGNES, G. ;
LEMOGNE, C. ;
REZAEI, K. ;
PEYRE, H. ;
LIMOSIN, F.
Année
2025
Page(s) :
3060-3074
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Domaine :
Alcool / Alcohol
Discipline :
PRO (Produits, mode d'action, méthode de dépistage / Substances, action mode, screening methods)
Thésaurus géographique
ETATS-UNIS
Thésaurus mots-clés
ALCOOL
;
ECHELLE D'EVALUATION
;
SYNDROME DE SEVRAGE
;
ADULTE
;
VALIDITE
;
FACTEUR DE RISQUE
;
AUDIT
;
FACTEUR PREDICTIF
;
INDICATEUR
;
DEPISTAGE
Autres mots-clés
Résumé :
We tested how 5 simple variables, routinely collected in primary care (i.e., the 3 AUDIT-C items, age, and sex), could constitute a clinician-friendly risk calculator tool of the 3-year risk of several alcohol-related adverse outcomes (i.e., alcohol use disorder, withdrawal symptoms, occurrence of tremors or seizures, and alcohol related interpersonal relationship problems, legal problems, and psychological problems) among non-alcohol-dependent individuals consuming alcohol. Data were drawn from a nationally representative sample of US adults, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (wave 1, 2001-2002; wave 2, 2004-2005). We used scaled and rounded composite scoring systems to combine information derived from these predictors and quantify the risks for each subject. Analyses were limited to 16,710 respondents without a lifetime history of alcohol use disorder who completed both interviews and had consumed alcohol during the year prior to wave 1 (development sample N = 8355, validation sample N = 8355). The risk equations calibrated well (Hosmer and Lemeshow test p values >= 0.072) and showed good predictive values (C indices ranging from 0.727 to 0.872) in the validation sample. This risk calculator can be clinically useful in primary care for identification of at-risk individuals, encourage respondents to reduce their drinking, and improve prevention.
Affiliation :
Department of Psychiatry, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP), Corentin Celton Hospital, Issy-Les-Moulineaux, France