Historique
Chapitre
Incidence and duration of drug use - alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and cocaine : Results from a preliminary analysis
Auteur(s) :
VAN OURS, J. C.
Année
2000
Page(s) :
21 p.
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Éditeur(s) :
Paris : TEAM
Refs biblio. :
31
Domaine :
Alcool / Alcohol ; Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs ; Tabac / Tobacco / e-cigarette
Thésaurus géographique
PAYS-BAS
Thésaurus mots-clés
ALCOOL
;
TABAC
;
CANNABIS
;
COCAINE
;
CONSOMMATION
;
AGE
;
SEXE
;
PREVALENCE
;
ABSTINENCE
;
MODELE STATISTIQUE
Résumé :
This paper uses a unique dataset collected among inhabitants of Amsterdam. to study incidence and duration of the consumption of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and cocaine. The focus is on people aged 25-49. From the data it appears that if people start using these drugs they are most likely to do that at age 16-18 for alcohol and tobacco and at age 18-20 for cannabis. For cocaine, there is a wider age range of 20-25 when people are most likely to start. If a person has not started using these drugs before age 25 he or she is not likely to do so after age 25. Quit rates are low for alcohol and tobacco. After 15 years of use the cumulative quit probability for alcohol is 5% and for tobacco 15%. The quit rates for cannabis and cocaine are substantially higher with a big peak in the first year. One year after the start 33% of the cocaine users and 15% of the cannabis users has stopped using. After 15 years the cumulative quit probability for cannabis is 50% and for cocaine 75%. Females appear to be less inclined to start using drugs and education is positively correlated with the incidence in the use of drugs. Conditional on age the later people are born the more likely they are at starting to use cannabis and the less likely they are at starting to smoke. Non-Dutch inhabitants and immigrants are more likely to start using drugs. Finally it appears that the quit rate is higher the older people are when they start using drugs. (Author's abstract)