Historique
Article de Périodique
A system dynamics model for cocaine prevalence estimation and trend projection (1993)
(Un modèle dynamique pour l'évaluation de la prévalence de cocaïne et des indicateurs)
Auteur(s) :
HOMER, J. B.
Année
1993
Page(s) :
251-279
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Refs biblio. :
18
Domaine :
Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs
Discipline :
EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology)
Note générale :
Journal of Drug Issues, 1993, 23, (2), 251-279
Résumé :
FRANÇAIS :
L'auteur présente un modèle dynamique de simulation qui reproduit divers indicateurs nationaux, révélateurs de l'usage de cocaïne et de sa disponibilité sur une période de quinze ans et fournit les estimations détaillées de la prévalence sous-jacente.
ENGLISH:
In this article the author presents a system dynamics simulation model that reproduces a variety of national indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a fifteen-year period and provides detailed estimates of underlying prevalence. Sensitivity tests are conducted that clarify observed trends such as growth in the compulsive use of crack cocaine and decline in the casual use of cocaine powder. Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications are simulated and projected through the year 2002 and the results are assessed. Researchers and decisionmakers hoping to understand and anticipate the dynamics of illicit drug use may benefit from simulation models that are realistic in detail and broad in scope. (Author's abstract)
L'auteur présente un modèle dynamique de simulation qui reproduit divers indicateurs nationaux, révélateurs de l'usage de cocaïne et de sa disponibilité sur une période de quinze ans et fournit les estimations détaillées de la prévalence sous-jacente.
ENGLISH:
In this article the author presents a system dynamics simulation model that reproduces a variety of national indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a fifteen-year period and provides detailed estimates of underlying prevalence. Sensitivity tests are conducted that clarify observed trends such as growth in the compulsive use of crack cocaine and decline in the casual use of cocaine powder. Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications are simulated and projected through the year 2002 and the results are assessed. Researchers and decisionmakers hoping to understand and anticipate the dynamics of illicit drug use may benefit from simulation models that are realistic in detail and broad in scope. (Author's abstract)
Affiliation :
36 Covington Lane, Voorhees, NJ 08043
Etats-Unis. United States.
Etats-Unis. United States.
Cote :
A00836