Historique
Article de Périodique
Prior information in behavioral capture-recapture methods: demographic influences on drug injectors' propensity to be listed in data sources and their drug-related mortality (2005)
(Information préalable dans les méthodes comportementales de capture-recapture : influences démographiques sur la tendance des injecteurs de drogues à être recensés dans les sources d'information et sur leur mortalité liée à l'usage de drogues)
Auteur(s) :
KING, R. ;
BIRD, S. M. ;
BROOKS, S. P. ;
HUTCHINSON, S. J. ;
HAY, G.
Année
2005
Page(s) :
694-703
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Refs biblio. :
26
Domaine :
Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs
Discipline :
EPI (Epidémiologie / Epidemiology)
Thésaurus géographique
ECOSSE
;
ROYAUME-UNI
Thésaurus mots-clés
MORTALITE
;
MODELE STATISTIQUE
;
METHODE
;
INJECTION
;
BASE DE DONNEES
;
SURVEILLANCE EPIDEMIOLOGIQUE
;
ENQUETE
;
PREVALENCE
Résumé :
The authors present findings from a Bayesian analysis of Scotland's four primary capture-recapture data sources for 2000 that was carried out to estimate numbers of current injecting drug users by region (Greater Glasgow vs. elsewhere in Scotland), sex (male vs. female), and age group (1534 years vs. 35 years). A secondary goal of the analysis was to obtain Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the demographic influences on Scotland's drug-related death rate per 100 current injectors. Incorporation of informative priors altered the models with highest posterior probability. Expert opinion on how demography influenced Scottish drug injectors' propensity to be listed in different data sources was taken into account, along with external information about European injectors' drug-related death rates and male:female ratios. Higher drug-related mortality was confirmed in older drug injectors and those outside of Greater Glasgow. Female injectors' lower drug-related death rate was not sustained beyond 34 years of age. The authors recommend that demographic influences be accommodated in behavioral capture-recapture estimation, especially when it is a prelude to secondary analysis, such as the analysis of drug-related death rates presented here.
Affiliation :
Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, UK