Afghanistan opium winter rapid assessment survey 2007

In most of Afghanistan opium poppy planting has been completed. While the seedlings for the 2007 harvest have just started to grow, UNODC has assessed the likely cultivation trends. This Winter Survey suggests that opium cultivation in Afghanistan in 2007 may not be lower than the record harvest of 165,000 hectares in 2006, although trends may vary among provinces. Significant decreases are expected in the North. This welcome news is the result of several initiatives aimed at providing farmers and local leaders with incentives to switch to licit livelihoods. The situation is worse in Afghanistans richly fertile yet highly unstable southern provinces. Bear in mind that this region accounted for more than 50 per cent of all opium cultivated in Afghanistan last year. This Survey looks at reasons why farmers decide to grow opium, or not. Evidence shows that villages that have received assistance are less likely to grow opium. Since this not a new finding, it would be desirable to build on this evidence by making Afghanistan the best example of how poppy cultivation can be countered by greater development assistance. There is some good news on this front. A Good Performance Fund was recently established to reward provinces demonstrating significant progress towards becoming opium free. The goal for 2007 is to double the number of opium-free provinces from six to twelve. That will create an opium-free belt across the middle of the country so as to concentrate later efforts to combat crime and insurgency in the South. The results also show clear correlations between insurgency and illicit drug-related activities. While this is not new, Afghanistan seems to be the most obvious case in the world of how drug cultivation, refining and trafficking fund political violence, and vice versa. Using the results of this assessment, district and provincial authorities are now alerted about opium cultivation trends in their jurisdiction. This Survey helps authorities put names and places together in order to improve transparency and accountability. The government and other stakeholders can now better target eradication efforts as well as reward areas that are opium free. Over time this will contribute to winning back Afghanistan from the drug lords, province by province. While opium attracts most attention, this report raises a new and disturbing trend: a significant increase in cannabis cultivation. The last thing we need is for Afghanistan to switch from one drug to another or worse to become a world leader in cannabis as well as opium production. [Extract]