Anticipating organized and transnational crime (2002)

This paper seeks to identify ways in which governments and lawenforcement agencies might enhance the effectiveness of their efforts toanticipate organized crime. It starts by defining what is meant byanticipation, and differentiating it from the much more difficult task ofprediction. The analysis then identifies some of the methods and modelsthat are generally accepted as part of the existing knowledge base onorganized crime and highlights how these can be used to anticipate futuredevelopments and to develop warnings about how criminal organizationsmight evolve and behave in the future. The knowledge base includespolitical, economic, sociological, strategic, and composite models and showshow they provide a foundation for anticipating future developments inorganized crime. The models are either models about the kind ofenvironment in which organized crime flourishes or models about the waysin which organized crime behaves. What we do, in effect, is to identifyand elucidate `models' in ways that provide propositions about the kindsof developments, innovations or changes we might see in organized crime(both domestic and transnational) in the future. Underlying indicators provide warning about future manifestations of organized crime. Anticipating these manifestations provides a basis for appropriatepreventive, defensive or mitigating strategies. Finally, the article providessome examples of specific techniques of information collection andintelligence analysis that might assist in this task of anticipation. (Author's abstract)