Historique
Article de Périodique
Projecting the impact of law enforcement on cocaine prevalence: a system dynamics approach (1993)
(Prévision de l'impact de l'application de la loi sur la prévalence de la cocaïne : approche par un système dynamique)
Auteur(s) :
HOMER, J. B.
Année
1993
Page(s) :
p.281-295
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Refs biblio. :
17
Domaine :
Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs
Discipline :
LOI (Loi et son application / Law enforcement)
Thésaurus mots-clés
DECRIMINALISATION
;
COCAINE
;
EVALUATION
;
METHODE
;
POLITIQUE
;
JUSTICE
;
MODELE
;
REPRESSION
Note générale :
Journal of Drug Issues, 1993, 23, (2), 281-295
Résumé :
FRANÇAIS :
Le débat continue sur la légalisation de la vente ou la décriminalisation de l'usage des drogues illicites. L'auteur présente l'application d'un modèle de système dynamique de la prévalence nationale de la cocaïne pour déterminer l'impact potentiel des politiques impliquant un relâchement de l'application de la loi en vigueur (représenté sur le modèle comme: diminutions des arrestations et des saisies de drogues).
ENGLISH:
The debate continues over the question of whether illicit drugs, including cocaine, ought to be decriminalized or legalized. At the center of this debate is the question of how law enforcement affects drug prevalence. In this article the author presents an application of an existing system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence to determine the potential impact of policies involving a relaxation of law enforcement — represented in the model as reductions in arrests or drug seizures. Although the model's predictive ability is limited by uncertainties about input assumptions, these uncertainties are well defined, few in number, and bounded to some degree by historical and logical considerations. Even in the presence of such uncertainties, the model produces credible and valuable projections. Dynamic simulation models may prove useful as common platforms for discussion and analysis in the context of the drug enforcement debate.
Le débat continue sur la légalisation de la vente ou la décriminalisation de l'usage des drogues illicites. L'auteur présente l'application d'un modèle de système dynamique de la prévalence nationale de la cocaïne pour déterminer l'impact potentiel des politiques impliquant un relâchement de l'application de la loi en vigueur (représenté sur le modèle comme: diminutions des arrestations et des saisies de drogues).
ENGLISH:
The debate continues over the question of whether illicit drugs, including cocaine, ought to be decriminalized or legalized. At the center of this debate is the question of how law enforcement affects drug prevalence. In this article the author presents an application of an existing system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence to determine the potential impact of policies involving a relaxation of law enforcement — represented in the model as reductions in arrests or drug seizures. Although the model's predictive ability is limited by uncertainties about input assumptions, these uncertainties are well defined, few in number, and bounded to some degree by historical and logical considerations. Even in the presence of such uncertainties, the model produces credible and valuable projections. Dynamic simulation models may prove useful as common platforms for discussion and analysis in the context of the drug enforcement debate.
Affiliation :
36 Covington Lane, Voorhees, NJ 08043
Etats-Unis. United States.
Etats-Unis. United States.