Historique
Périodique
Simulation of adaptative response: a model of drug interdiction
(Simulation d'une réponse appropriée : modèle de prohibition de la drogue)
Auteur(s) :
CAULKINS, J. ;
CRAWFORD, G. ;
REUTER, P.
Année
1993
Page(s) :
15 p.
Langue(s) :
Anglais
Éditeur(s) :
Santa Monica, CA : Rand Corporation
Collection :
Reprints, RP-193
Refs biblio. :
14
Domaine :
Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs
Discipline :
LOI (Loi et son application / Law enforcement)
Résumé :
FRANÇAIS :
Ce document est une démonstration mathématique simulant trafic et prohibition des drogues illicites. Il ressort de cette étude que si l'on ne tient pas compte de tout un ensemble de paramètres, un renforcement de la prohibition de la cocaïne dans les pays producteurs ne suffit pas à en faire diminuer la consommation aux Etats-Unis.
ENGLISH :
This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation of the smuggling and interdiction of illicit drugs that explicitly allows for adaptation across routes and modes. The model is used to examine several issues surrounding the interdiction of cocaine shipments into the U.S. It suggests that back-of-the-envelope estimates of interdiction's effectiveness may be overly optimistic if they neglect the existence of a backstop technology (smuggling small shipments over land), the concavity of smugglers' costs as a function of the fraction of all routes on which the interdiction rate is increased, and the fact that not all smuggling costs are caused by interdiction. When one considers these factors, it appears that only under truly exceptional circumstances would one expect increasing interdiction to have a substantial impact on U.S. cocaine consumption. (Author's abstract).
Ce document est une démonstration mathématique simulant trafic et prohibition des drogues illicites. Il ressort de cette étude que si l'on ne tient pas compte de tout un ensemble de paramètres, un renforcement de la prohibition de la cocaïne dans les pays producteurs ne suffit pas à en faire diminuer la consommation aux Etats-Unis.
ENGLISH :
This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation of the smuggling and interdiction of illicit drugs that explicitly allows for adaptation across routes and modes. The model is used to examine several issues surrounding the interdiction of cocaine shipments into the U.S. It suggests that back-of-the-envelope estimates of interdiction's effectiveness may be overly optimistic if they neglect the existence of a backstop technology (smuggling small shipments over land), the concavity of smugglers' costs as a function of the fraction of all routes on which the interdiction rate is increased, and the fact that not all smuggling costs are caused by interdiction. When one considers these factors, it appears that only under truly exceptional circumstances would one expect increasing interdiction to have a substantial impact on U.S. cocaine consumption. (Author's abstract).
Affiliation :
RAND Corp., 1700 Main st., PO Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407
Etats-Unis. United States.
Etats-Unis. United States.