Limits of current economic analyses of the demand for illicit drugs

ENGLISH :
Although the etiology of drug abuse is largely an area of concern for epidemiologists, to date no one has evaluated the impact of prices and other aspects of the full cost on the escalation of drug use, from initiation to regular use or regular use to dependent use. Different levels of use have been evaluated, but the transition from one level to another has Largely been ignored. Economic theory suggests that these transitions, particularly from experimental use to regular use, should be particularly sensitive to the availability and cost of the drug as physiological dependencies play a lesser role and social influences play a larger role. Even if escalation is largely determined by social influences, there is ample evidence that price and availability influence the overall level of use, and hence the price of the drug can influence escalation indirectly through these social networks. Careful work in this area needs to be done. However, part of the difficulty of conducting work in this area is defining the point at which use transitions from experimentation to regular use or regular use to dependence. There is likely to be a tremendous amount of heterogeneity in the population in terms of the behaviors indicating specific use levels and the transition from one level of use to another. We may even find these transitions to be heavily age dependent. In any case, it is an area of research worth developing so that we can get a better understanding of the importance of price in these transitions. If price and other aspects of the full cost of drug use are important contributors to escalation, then we may be able to devise policies that are more effective at preventing the escalation of drug use (and hence drug problems). A second area to which economists have a potential to contribute is a better understanding of the relative effectiveness of prevention strategies that target the different determinants of the demand for drugs. Right now, demand-side policies aimed at reducing drug use and its problems tend to focus on raising price, increasing awareness of the health and legal risks associated with use, or instilling resistance strategies against negative peer influences. Although we know from estimating demand equations that price, health and legal risks, and peer pressure are important determinants of demand, it remains unclear as to which of these factors are the more cost-effective targets for policies that seek to reduce demand. Economists are well poised to evaluate this type of question, and assuming that adequate data are available to measure these factors, research in this area is likely to make a valuable contribution to design of strategies for preventing substance use and misuse. (Extract of the publication)