Titre : | Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories in Colombia (2012) |
Auteurs : | R. LEONCINI ; F. RENTOCCHINI |
Type de document : | Article : Périodique |
Dans : | International Journal of Drug Policy (Vol.23, n°6, November 2012) |
Article en page(s) : | 449-457 |
Langues: | Anglais |
Discipline : | MAR (Marchés / Markets) |
Mots-clés : |
Thésaurus géographique COLOMBIEThésaurus mots-clés COCAINE ; PRODUCTION ; SAISIE ; LABORATOIRE CLANDESTIN ; MARCHE DE LA DROGUE ; ECONOMETRIE ; MODELE STATISTIQUE |
Résumé : |
Background: Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine.
Methods: We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory. Results: Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295-450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production. |
Domaine : | Drogues illicites / Illicit drugs |
Affiliation : | Department of Economics, University of Bologna and Ceris-CNR, Milan, Italy |
Cote : | Abonnement |
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